Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study

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dc.coverageDOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00073-0
dc.creatorWu, Yao
dc.creatorLi, Shanshan
dc.creatorZhao, Qi
dc.creatorWen, Bo
dc.creatorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.creatorTong, Shilu
dc.creatorOvercenco, Ala
dc.creatorUrban, Aleš
dc.creatorSchneider, Alexandra
dc.creatorEntezari, Alireza
dc.creatorVicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
dc.creatorZanobetti, Antonella
dc.creatorAnalitis, Antonis
dc.creatorZeka, Ariana
dc.creatorTobias, Aurelio
dc.creatorNunes, Baltazar
dc.creatorAlahmad, Barrak
dc.creatorArmstrong, Ben
dc.creatorForsberg, Bertil
dc.creatorPan, Shih Chun
dc.creatorÍñiguez, Carmen
dc.creatorAmeling, Caroline
dc.creatorDe la Cruz Valencia, César
dc.creatorÅström, Christofer
dc.creatorHouthuijs, Danny
dc.creatorVan Dung, Do
dc.creatorRoyé, Dominic
dc.creatorIndermitte, Ene
dc.creatorLavigne, Eric
dc.creatorMayvaneh, Fatemeh
dc.creatorAcquaotta, Fiorella
dc.creatorde'Donato, Francesca
dc.creatorRao, Shilpa
dc.creatorSera, Francesco
dc.creatorCarrasco-Escobar, Gabriel
dc.creatorKan, Haidong
dc.creatorOrru, Hans
dc.creatorKim, Ho
dc.creatorHolobaca, Iulian Horia
dc.creatorKyselý, Jan
dc.creatorMadureira, Joana
dc.creatorSchwartz, Joel
dc.creatorJaakkola, Jouni J.K.
dc.creatorKatsouyanni, Klea
dc.creatorHurtado Diaz, Magali
dc.creatorRagettli, Martina S.
dc.creatorHashizume, Masahiro
dc.creatorPascal, Mathilde
dc.creatorde Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline
dc.creatorOrtega, Nicolás Valdés
dc.creatorRyti, Niilo
dc.creatorScovronick, Noah
dc.creatorMichelozzi, Paola
dc.creatorCorrea, Patricia Matus
dc.creatorGoodman, Patrick
dc.creatorNascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario
dc.creatorAbrutzky, Rosana
dc.creatorOsorio, Samuel
dc.creatorDang, Tran Ngoc
dc.creatorColistro, Valentina
dc.creatorHuber, Veronika
dc.creatorLee, Whanhee
dc.creatorSeposo, Xerxes
dc.creatorHonda, Yasushi
dc.creatorGuo, Yue Leon
dc.creatorBell, Michelle L.
dc.creatorGuo, Yuming
dc.date2022
dc.date.accessioned2025-11-18T19:55:55Z
dc.date.available2025-11-18T19:55:55Z
dc.description<p>Background: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000–19. Methods: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000–19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. Findings: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901–2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2–4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7–5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3–10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2–5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9–4·6). Interpretation: Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. Funding: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health &amp; Medical Research Council.</p>eng
dc.identifierhttps://investigadores.uandes.cl/en/publications/e509124b-5807-4ca6-8747-094d0de68954
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uandes.cl/handle/uandes/59511
dc.languageeng
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.sourcevol.6 (2022) nr.5 p.e410-e421
dc.subjectSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
dc.titleGlobal, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling studyeng
dc.typeArticleeng
dc.typeArtículospa
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