The association of COVID-19 incidence with temperature, humidity, and UV radiation – A global multi-city analysis

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dc.coverageDOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158636
dc.creatorNottmeyer, Luise
dc.creatorArmstrong, Ben
dc.creatorLowe, Rachel
dc.creatorAbbott, Sam
dc.creatorMeakin, Sophie
dc.creatorO'Reilly, Kathleen M.
dc.creatorvon Borries, Rosa
dc.creatorSchneider, Rochelle
dc.creatorRoyé, Dominic
dc.creatorHashizume, Masahiro
dc.creatorPascal, Mathilde
dc.creatorTobias, Aurelio
dc.creatorVicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
dc.creatorLavigne, Eric
dc.creatorCorrea, Patricia Matus
dc.creatorOrtega, Nicolás Valdés
dc.creatorKynčl, Jan
dc.creatorUrban, Aleš
dc.creatorOrru, Hans
dc.creatorRyti, Niilo
dc.creatorJaakkola, Jouni
dc.creatorDallavalle, Marco
dc.creatorSchneider, Alexandra
dc.creatorHonda, Yasushi
dc.creatorNg, Chris Fook Sheng
dc.creatorAlahmad, Barrak
dc.creatorCarrasco-Escobar, Gabriel
dc.creatorHolobâc, Iulian Horia
dc.creatorKim, Ho
dc.creatorLee, Whanhee
dc.creatorÍñiguez, Carmen
dc.creatorBell, Michelle L.
dc.creatorZanobetti, Antonella
dc.creatorSchwartz, Joel
dc.creatorScovronick, Noah
dc.creatorCoélho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio
dc.creatorSaldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento
dc.creatorDiaz, Magali Hurtado
dc.creatorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.creatorSera, Francesco
dc.date2023
dc.date.accessioned2025-11-18T19:42:40Z
dc.date.available2025-11-18T19:42:40Z
dc.description<p>Background and aim: The associations between COVID-19 transmission and meteorological factors are scientifically debated. Several studies have been conducted worldwide, with inconsistent findings. However, often these studies had methodological issues, e.g., did not exclude important confounding factors, or had limited geographic or temporal resolution. Our aim was to quantify associations between temporal variations in COVID-19 incidence and meteorological variables globally. Methods: We analysed data from 455 cities across 20 countries from 3 February to 31 October 2020. We used a time-series analysis that assumes a quasi-Poisson distribution of the cases and incorporates distributed lag non-linear modelling for the exposure associations at the city-level while considering effects of autocorrelation, long-term trends, and day of the week. The confounding by governmental measures was accounted for by incorporating the Oxford Governmental Stringency Index. The effects of daily mean air temperature, relative and absolute humidity, and UV radiation were estimated by applying a meta-regression of local estimates with multi-level random effects for location, country, and climatic zone. Results: We found that air temperature and absolute humidity influenced the spread of COVID-19 over a lag period of 15 days. Pooling the estimates globally showed that overall low temperatures (7.5 °C compared to 17.0 °C) and low absolute humidity (6.0 g/m<sup>3</sup> compared to 11.0 g/m<sup>3</sup>) were associated with higher COVID-19 incidence (RR temp =1.33 with 95%CI: 1.08; 1.64 and RR AH =1.33 with 95%CI: 1.12; 1.57). RH revealed no significant trend and for UV some evidence of a positive association was found. These results were robust to sensitivity analysis. However, the study results also emphasise the heterogeneity of these associations in different countries. Conclusion: Globally, our results suggest that comparatively low temperatures and low absolute humidity were associated with increased risks of COVID-19 incidence. However, this study underlines regional heterogeneity of weather-related effects on COVID-19 transmission.</p>eng
dc.identifierhttps://investigadores.uandes.cl/en/publications/bebcac0a-7d8f-4c5f-a7d7-8608c405a052
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uandes.cl/handle/uandes/52470
dc.languageeng
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.sourcevol.854 (2023) date: 2023-01-01 p.1-14
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectDistributed lag non-linear modelling
dc.subjectGlobal analysis
dc.subjectHumidity
dc.subjectTemperature
dc.subjectUV radiation
dc.titleThe association of COVID-19 incidence with temperature, humidity, and UV radiation – A global multi-city analysiseng
dc.typeArticleeng
dc.typeArtículospa
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