Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015

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dc.coverageDOI: 10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334
dc.creatorYang, Daewon
dc.creatorHashizume, Masahiro
dc.creatorTobías, Aurelio
dc.creatorHonda, Yasushi
dc.creatorRoye, Dominic
dc.creatorOh, Jaemin
dc.creatorDang, Tran Ngoc
dc.creatorKim, Yoonhee
dc.creatorAbrutzky, Rosana
dc.creatorGuo, Yuming
dc.creatorTong, Shilu
dc.creatorCoelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio
dc.creatorSaldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento
dc.creatorLavigne, Eric
dc.creatorCorrea, Patricia Matus
dc.creatorOrtega, Nicolás Valdés
dc.creatorOsorio, Samuel
dc.creatorKyselý, Jan
dc.creatorUrban, Aleš
dc.creatorOrru, Hans
dc.creatorIndermitte, Ene
dc.creatorJaakkola, Jouni
dc.creatorRyti, Niilo
dc.creatorPascal, Mathilde
dc.creatorHuber, Veronika
dc.creatorSchneider, Alexandra
dc.creatorKatsouyanni, Klea
dc.creatorAnalitis, Antonis
dc.creatorEntezari, Alireza
dc.creatorMayvaneh, Fatemeh
dc.creatorGoodman, Patrick
dc.creatorZeka, Ariana
dc.creatorMichelozzi, Paola
dc.creatorde’Donato, Francesca
dc.creatorAlahmad, Barrak
dc.creatorDiaz, Magali Hurtado
dc.creatorValencia, César De la Cruz
dc.creatorOvercenco, Ala
dc.creatorHouthuijs, Danny
dc.creatorAmeling, Caroline
dc.creatorRao, Shilpa
dc.creatorNunes, Baltazar
dc.creatorMadureira, Joana
dc.creatorHolo-Bâc, Iulian Horia
dc.creatorScovronick, Noah
dc.creatorAcquaotta, Fiorella
dc.creatorKim, Ho
dc.creatorLee, Whanhee
dc.creatorÍñiguez, Carmen
dc.creatorForsberg, Bertil
dc.creatorVicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
dc.creatorRagettli, Martina S.
dc.creatorGuo, Yue Liang Leon
dc.creatorPan, Shih Chun
dc.creatorLi, Shanshan
dc.creatorSera, Francesco
dc.creatorZanobetti, Antonella
dc.creatorSchwartz, Joel
dc.creatorArmstrong, Ben
dc.creatorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.creatorChung, Yeonseung
dc.date2024
dc.date.accessioned2025-11-18T19:51:02Z
dc.date.available2025-11-18T19:51:02Z
dc.description<p>Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986–2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country. Results: Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17.9, 21.1) to 20.3 °C (18.5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68.3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71.0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (P &lt; 0.001). Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, P = 0.02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, P = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = −0.46, P = 0.05). MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = −3.45, P = 0.02) and South Europe (LS = −2.86, P = 0.05). Conclusions: The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations.</p>eng
dc.identifierhttps://investigadores.uandes.cl/en/publications/e4e51f95-dad4-45fe-a871-b1d20d11d6bc
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uandes.cl/handle/uandes/56933
dc.languageeng
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.sourcevol.8 (2024) date: 2024-09-30 nr.5 p.e334
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectHeterogeneity
dc.subjectHuman adaptation
dc.subjectMinimum mortality temperature
dc.subjectTemporal change
dc.subjectSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
dc.subjectSDG 13 - Climate Action
dc.titleTemporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015eng
dc.typeArticleeng
dc.typeArtículospa
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